XG, The heated
debate
From the past few weeks, XG has
been a topic of immense scrutiny and discussion amongst the FPL Managers.
Statisticians and Analytics seem to be heavily backing the importance of XG in
the game itself.
As a contrarian I attempt to
simplify the concept and impact of XG in playing the game.
Firstly, we need to accept the
fact that there are 5-6 FPL assets who are permanent in most serious FPL
managers teams (Salah, TAA, Cancelo, Ramsdale, Chelsea Defender etc).
Undoubtedly the XG of the said elite FPL assets are amongst the highest, but at
the same time managers don’t even need to look at XG of such players as their
total points and eye test and performances are enough. Further delving into
stats and XG of these players is a statistical exercise to record their data.
While formulating a team,
managers look at various aspects which include 1. Form 2. Fixtures 3. Points
Scored. 4. Eye test. In case none of the aforesaid are enough for a manager to
select an asset, then one can make a case for looking at XG/XA for selection.
In all fairness, most teams are selected within the first 4 criteria’s.
One can use the example of any
player to support a certain narrative. At the same time, we all know that the
game is based on skill/ luck. Skill in terms of strategies/chips/hits.
Adventurous managers go for hits and take more chances but historically
successful managers tell you that hits should be at the minimum. Never have I
heard a top class manager backing their selections on the basis of XG, rather
their way of playing is more conservative in nature, sticking to a set of
players and being patient throughout the season and making transfers according to a long drawn strategy, even
taking a hit here and there.
XG as a concept actually tells
you the past performance of a player statistically which in most cases does not
correspond to their points achieved. In my humble opinion, XG is a record
keeping tool, a deeper one after the actual points scored by the player. As the
game has been expanding every year, so are the players and their styles.
Science is being attempted to apply on footballers and their future
performances, which, to me is complete absurdity in fantasy premier league.
Yellow Cards, Red Cards, VAR decisions, on field refereeing amongst other
factors are completely ignored by proponents of XG/XA.
Conclusion- With the number of
managers and love of the game, we like interacting on various aspects of the
game itself. As is rightly said love is blind, So are the XG proponents.
